NFL playoff picture after Week 13: Jaguars lose Trevor Lawrence, control of AFC top seed

May 2024 · 10 minute read

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a chance to seize control of the top spot in the AFC, but their 34-31 overtime loss Monday night to the Cincinnati Bengals dropped them to the No. 4 seed. Of greater concern, of course, is the health of franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who exited the game with a sprained ankle. As of this writing, the severity of the sprain is not yet known. But if Lawrence is out for any length of time, it could be tough for the Jaguars to hang on to their lead in the AFC South with the 7-5 Indianapolis Colts and the 7-5 Houston Texans right behind them.

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As for the rest of the NFLWeek 13 saw plenty of movement in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at where things stand heading into Week 14.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock. Note: Mock’s model accounts for Lawrence missing Week 14 but returning the following week. It will be adjusted when we learn more about the severity of the injury. 

AFC playoff picture

SeedTeamRecordWeek 13 result

1

10-3

W vs. LAR

2

9-3

TBD (vs. TEN)

3

8-4

L vs. GB

4

8-5

L vs. CLE

5

8-5

W vs. JAX

6

7-5

L vs. LAR

7

7-5

W vs. TEN

The Dolphins have scored 79 points in their last two wins against the New York Jets and Washington Commanders, so they’re cooking again and should keep rolling in their next two games. But the bigger picture for the Dolphins is how this will translate to the playoffs. Their final three regular-season games will determine their status among the league’s contenders. The Dolphins’ .306 strength of victory is the worst in the AFC and the third worst in the NFL.

Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.5 percent | To earn bye: 40.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 14.5 percent

Tyreek Hill, speed personified 💨

Hill has three catches for 132 yards and two TDs already vs. Washington.

There's six minutes remaining in the first half.

🎥 @MiamiDolphinspic.twitter.com/Xe6QBSwVJZ

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 3, 2023

The Ravens had a desirable Week 13 bye week to rest up for a late-season push for the No. 1 seed. They’re surely going to have to earn it with three consecutive games against division leaders following a date with the Los Angeles Rams. If the Ravens handle business, quarterback Lamar Jackson will garner MVP consideration.

Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

Odds: To make playoffs: 98.6 percent | To earn bye: 23.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 11.6 percent

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

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The Chiefs are 2-3 over their last five games while averaging 19.4 points per clip. This is the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era, but the offense isn’t delivering. More concerning, Mahomes and the offense haven’t played well in clutch situations over that stretch. The Chiefs have an easy schedule the rest of the way, but they could use a solid fourth quarter in a tight game to reassure themselves before the playoffs.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

Odds: To make playoffs: 98.7 percent | To earn bye: 28 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12.6 percent

The Jaguars had a nightmarish return to Monday football. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence went down in the fourth quarter with a potentially serious ankle injury during the overtime loss to the Bengals. And Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning carved up the Jaguars defense. If Lawrence misses time, the Jags’ one-game AFC South lead over the Colts and Texans, along with the incredibly high hopes for their season, would be in serious jeopardy.

Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 95.8 percent | To earn bye: 6.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 6.1 percent

The Steelers too frequently force their defense to play a perfect game. And as their record shows, they’re certainly capable of doing that. But when they don’t, they get the results like Sunday — a 24-10 loss — when they were severely outplayed by an Arizona Cardinals team that’s been in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

Odds: To make playoffs: 56.1 percent | To earn bye: 0.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

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Incredibly, the Browns remain in good standing with Joe Flacco becoming their fourth starting QB of the season. And beyond that, if Flacco starts next week, all four of those QBs will have started multiple games, so it’s not like they’re dealing with a string of one-off situations. Credit to coach Kevin Stefanski and that incredible defense for keeping them afloat amid the chaos, but the back-to-back losses to the Denver Broncos and Rams have brought the Browns back to the wild-card pack.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 62.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

Gardner Minshew was HYPE in the locker room after the Colts beat the Titans in OT😂

🎥 @NFLonCBSpic.twitter.com/IRVSxvox1E

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 3, 2023

It doesn’t always look pretty, but the Colts’ four-game winning streak is impressive nonetheless. They were a disaster in 2022, lost quarterback Anthony Richardson early, have only gotten about a half season’s worth of work from running back Jonathan Taylor and overcame a three-game losing streak. To be fair, their only two wins against teams with winning records occurred in Weeks 2 and 3, but the Colts shouldn’t apologize for being in the playoff mix given the adversity they’ve overcome.

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

Odds: To make playoffs: 61.7 percent | To earn bye: 0.2 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.6 percent

In the hunt

• Houston Texans (7-5)
• Denver Broncos (6-6)
• Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
• Buffalo Bills (6-6)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)
• Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
• New York Jets (4-8)
• Tennessee Titans (4-8)
• New England Patriots (2-10)

Eliminated:

• None

NFC playoff picture

SeedTeamRecordWeek 13 result

1

10-2

L vs. SF

2

9-3

W vs. PHI

3

9-3

W vs. NO

4

6-6

W vs. NYJ

5

9-3

W vs. SEA

6

6-6

Bye

7

6-6

W vs. KC

Surely a humbling experience for the Eagles in a blowout loss to the 49ers, but they’ll be OK. Don’t lose sight of the fact that they had just taken down the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills over the last five games. But now the cushion is gone, and the Eagles will have to stave off the Cowboys in a crucial NFC East rematch.

Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 44.7 percent | To win Super Bowl: 11.8 percent

DEEBO SAMUEL WITH HIS THIRD TOUCHDOWN OF THE DAY 🤯

🎥 @NFLpic.twitter.com/IcLk0AyFg6

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 4, 2023

When the Niners are clicking offensively, they have a way of grinding down their opponents into rubble, and they almost made it look easy Sunday against the Eagles. The 49ers impressively sucked the life out of the Philly crowd and an Eagles team that showed incredible resilience to erase double-digit deficits in their last two wins against the Chiefs and Bills.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

In a convincing Philadelphia rout, 49ers get their proof of concept

The 49ers were robbed of a chance to know how they stacked up against Philly in the NFC Championship Game due to quarterback Brock Purdy’s early injury, so this will give them plenty of confidence heading into January.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9 percent | To earn bye: 42.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 18.9 percent

It’s been a bumpier ride of late for the Lions, but they’re still winning despite their struggles. The Lions are good enough to make a playoff run, but their inconsistency with ball security is a big concern.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

NFL Week 13 takeaways: Is defense Lions' fatal flaw? Are 49ers now Super Bowl favorites?

Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.3 percent | To earn bye: 4.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 5.6 percent

Sammy's scoring touchdowns‼️#DETvsNO 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/nKWy4Esd2J

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 3, 2023

They’ve won back-to-back games for the first time since their 2-0 start. Now with the Bucs and Panthers on tap, the Falcons have a chance to put together an extended winning streak. Eight wins might be enough to lock up the NFC South.

Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

Odds: To make playoffs: 67.2 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.9 percent

The Cowboys have the Eagles where they want them, visiting Dallas this week with a chance to pull into a tie atop the division. Or do they? They’ve lost their two biggest tests of the season against the 49ers and Eagles. Both of those games were also on the road, which furthers the importance of the Cowboys’ chase for the division title and the chance to host additional playoff games.

Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.8 percent | To earn bye: 8.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 9.6 percent

Good for the Vikings to climb into the playoff mix after a 1-4 start, but the loss of Kirk Cousins and their two-game losing streak have them on dangerous ground. Quarterback Josh Dobbs is one of the best individual stories of the season, though coach Kevin O’Connell said the Vikings would need to take a hard look at the position during their bye week.

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Remaining schedule: at Raiders, at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 50.3 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

No hyperbole, Jordan Love has commanded the line of scrimmage as well as any quarterback over the Packers’ three-game winning streak. If this is the tip of the iceberg, the Packers are set to make a run against an incredibly easy schedule over the final five games, and there’s no telling how far that confidence could lead them in the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 74.3 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.3 percent

ANOTHER ONE FOR @ChristianW2017!

TOUCHDOWN! 🙌 #KCvsGB | #GoPackGo

📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/3MUEvPMWoo

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 4, 2023

In the hunt

• Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
• Seattle Seahawks (6-6)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
• New Orleans Saints (5-7)
• New York Giants (4-8)
• Chicago Bears (4-8)
• Washington Commanders (4-9)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

Eliminated:

• Carolina Panthers (1-11)

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Jahns: Jim Harbaugh to the Bears? If they move on from Matt Eberflus, it's time for a big swing

(Photo of Trevor Lawrence: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)

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